New tool to study how climate change has shifted the odds of extreme cold weather

The federal government will begin this winter to quickly analyze how climate change is shifting the odds of extreme cold temperatures, broadening the application of the system it rolled out over the summer to study heat waves.

Officials with Environment and Climate Change Canada say the results will show how much less likely a given cold wave has become because of human-caused climate change.

Of the 37 heat waves they studied this summer, officials say all were made more likely due to climate change, with most falling in the range of two to 10 times more likely.

In what’s called a rapid attribution study, climate scientists have said they see the potential to translate for the general public how decades of human activity, mostly the burning of vast amounts of fossil fuels, is already contributing to dramatic shifts in weather extremes –generally more heat and fewer cold extremes.

At a briefing today, officials said this summer was the warmest on record in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, and the fourth hottest in Canada, according to data dating back to 1948.

In that time, they say Canada’s summer temperatures have warmed by 1.7 C, a trend driven largely by human-caused climate change.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.